The worst-case scenario for New Orleans -- a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan -- could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.
But what's the downside?
If the storm were strong enough, Ivan could drive water over the tops of the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River and vast Lake Pontchartrain. And with the city sitting in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level, there would be nowhere for all that water to drain.
"Those folks who remain, should the city flood, would be exposed to all kinds of nightmares from buildings falling apart to floating in the water having nowhere to go," Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Hurricane Public Health Center, said Tuesday...
I bet he doesn't have any computer simulations to support his outlandish, irresponsible speculations.
[LSU] computer models show a hurricane with a wind speed of around 120 mph or more -- hitting just west of New Orleans so its counterclockwise rotation could hurl the strongest surf and wind directly into the city-- would push a storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain over the city's levees. Ivan had sustained wind of 140 mph Tuesday.Doh!
New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes.
Besides collecting standard household and business garbage and chemicals, the flood would flow through chemical plants in the area, " so there's the potential of pretty severe contamination," van Heerden said.
Details, details...
Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.
Damn, I didn't know about the dangerous balls of stinging ants-- I might have to rethink this.
A rescue of people who stayed behind would be among the world's biggest since 1940, when Allied forces and civilian volunteers during World War II rescued mostly British soldiers from Dunkirk, France, and carried them across the English Channel, van Heerden predicted.As long as we're doing WWII parallels, perhaps crucial bourbon supplies could be airdropped into the city a la Berlin.
Much of the city would be under water for weeks. And even after the river and Lake Pontchartrain receded, the levees could trap water above sea level, meaning the Army Corps of Engineers would have to cut the levees to let the water out...
The worst storm in recent decades to hit New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which submerged parts of the city in water 7-feet deep and was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. That storm was a Category 3, weaker than Ivan is expected to be.
Puh-leeze. There's 80 to 100+ year old buildings all around me. If they've been able to survive this long... *knock on wood* I'm sure it will be fine *gulp*.
Even if New Orleans escapes this time, van Heerden said, it will remain vulnerable until the federal and state governments act to restore the coastal wetlands that should act as a buffer against storms coming in from the Gulf.
Yes, a political angle!
Louisiana has lost about a half million acres of coast to erosion since 1930 because the Mississippi River is so corralled by levees that it can dump sediment only at its mouth, and that allows waves from the Gulf to chop away at the rest of the coastline.
"My fear is, if this storm passes (without a major disaster), everybody forgets about it until next year, when it could be even worse because we'll have even less wetlands," van Heerden said.
Vote for Democrats (who support larger coastal restoration investments) unless you like swimming in a contaminated flood, dodging floating balls of fire-ants.
