Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Mary's pulling out all the stops
Emily Metzgar "parses" a Roll Call article about Senator Mary Landrieu and the offshore drilling/revenue-sharing bill which the Senate may vote on today or tomorrow. Apparently, rumors are swirling that Landrieu may switch parties if Dems kill this bill.
Emily writes:
[G]iven Louisiana's history of producing Democrats who defect to the Republican party, Democratic support for offshore drilling seems based, in part, on keeping Senator Landrieu in the Democratic fold. But the senator's spokesman quashes speculation on this saying, "Mary Landrieu is a moderate Democrat, but at the end of the day she is the same as she was at the beginning of the day, a Democrat."
That this question would even be posed to Senator Landrieu's office is fascinating.
Metzgar attributes this "fascinating" development to the "Katrina effect" and says that a "Katrina-inspired" political upheaval is "changing the national political calculus about Louisiana". While this analysis may be accurate, I have a much narrower interpretation of these Capitol Hill rumors regarding Landrieu's supposed flirtation with the GOP.
This isn't the "Katrina effect"-- this is Senate cloakroom poker. It's brinksmanship and high stakes negotiation; and, to her immense credit, Landrieu's team is apparently floating rumors that she'll defect to the GOP if fellow Democrats (like
Bada-Bingaman) kill the revenue sharing bill. Mary is using every available measure to persuade, nay,
force Minority Leader Harry Reid to deliver votes for this bill, which will help Louisiana restore its vital coast.
Now, anyone with a lick of political sense knows that she's bluffing. The LA GOP hates Mary. They have a visceral disgust for all things Landrieu, and everyone would distrust her if she "converted" to the GOP (including Rove in D.C.). Her political future would be over. Even if her party-switching allowed the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate by one vote, she'd still be
persona non grata among GOP conservatives, because they believe she's a corrupt liberal. So, going to the GOP makes absolutely no sense as a political strategy, but it makes a ton of sense as a bluff-- especially to folks outside the state who might not know any better.
One of these types is
Hillhack from MyDD. In a recent post, he wonders about the subterranean political dynamics at work on the revenue-sharing bill (which he incorrectly regards as a "raid" on the Fed Treasury by Louisiana). I attempted to correct him in the
MyDD comments, to no avail. More interesting, though, was a comment Hillhack made that supports the Roll Call rumors that prompted Metzgar's post. Hillhack states:
I'm glad you're so confident in [Landrieu] staying a Democrat, very few people on the Hill are. Her hiring of Republicans to handle her legislative agenda does not bode well.
I could be wrong, but it seems to me that Senator Landrieu is pulling off a tremendous bluff in order to gain leverage with recalcitrant Dems prior to the high stakes House/Senate negotiations of the energy bill. YRHT salutes her bold maneuvering, and wishes her success as she tries to negotiate a greater share of oil revenues to save the Gret Stet's coast. There is no question in my mind that she's a "Louisiana Firster".
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Update: Jeffrey has some perfectly-worded observations in the comment section of this post.
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Update 2: We saw that has a link to video of Mary Landrieu explaining the bill.
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Mary Landrieu will never become a Republican. Never. And anyone who thinks it could happen is an idiot.
Most Republicans don't like her at all and that includes me.
Right. But if she can fool some influential people into believing this lunacy for the good of the state, then I'm all for it.
Wow.. what an interesting discussion.. in that comments thread, I mean... very illustrative of the massive problem of information that needs to be overcome in these kinds of debates. Even (especially?) when they involve self-described "hacks" who obviously are willing to do just enough research to be exactly wrong. Perplexing.
Also.. can this be yet another example of the folly of the two-party system? There certainly should be a more coherent way for a Senator to gain the leverage she needs in order to deliver for her state. Not that I don't find this amusing. It's particularly funny if it works.
thanks for the plug - we've also uploaded sen landrieu's interview: in .mp3 audio its about 7mb and the link is here.
S.3711 - gulf coast drilling bill just passed the senate on final passage:
71 yeas - 25 nays
That's good. But everything I've heard today indicates there won't be much movement our way in the H/S negotiations. I'm trying to remain like Jindal-- ever-optimistic.
Though I applaud Sen. Landrieu, I can't help but wonder if her convictions in regards to presidents, parties, etc. are that weak. Jeffrey makes a very good point. This is a flaw of a two-party system. But are our politicians so weak in conviction for ideology that someone like Landrieu can go from supporting a Kerry-like candidate to a Bush-like candidate for president.
We Saw That blogged about Rep. Rodney Alexander today. He went from Dem. to Repub. Did he go from almost supporting Kerry to supporting Bush just so he could win his way to the U.S. Congress?
My work has kept me from blogging the last couple days. But, I will be following this vote and will have my thoughts when it's all said and done. Hopefully, Louisiana's citizens and politicians will not be happy with this "compromise." Also, there is alot to be said about these states such as CA, FL, and MA who refuse to help our country be more self-sufficient in oil consumption, rather, they are trying to fillibuster such measures. How should we address them?
I hope over the next month some of the NOLA bloggers in tune with this issue can make a dent in the anti-oil views on Daily Kos and in the liberal centers of the blog universe. My guess is the reconciliation bill that comes out in the fall will struggle to get the 60 votes needed. Some liberal support for the bill will greatly reduce the chance of filibuster by enviromental Dems who think ANWR is somehow an important issue to voters with gas at $3/gallon and the Gulf Coast still crippled.
Oil isn't a bad word in progressive Norway, it should not be a bad word among American progressives. If Gov. Schweitzer can get kisses and flowers on Daily Kos for pushing a coal gasification plan then Sen. Landrieu should be able to flip some liberal support for oil drilling that helps save an American city. There is still a big fight to come.
Unfortunately, many partisan hack liberals won't support the bill b/c it was originally written in the House by Bobby Jindal. Along with that, there are many people who don't want to support anything that would aid in oil companies making more money, even if the legislation is for the overall good of the country. I think Oyster is rare in being a Lefty to supports this bill. Then again, I don't see him as a partisan hack who will oppose anything a Republican tries to do.
Thanks for the kind words, nick. All of my lefty "fellow travelers" that live in LA are supportive of this bill.
Joe said: "reconciliation bill that comes out in the fall"... Our Rep. Jindal said that if it doesn't get out of committee by early September, it is much less likely to pass due to election-year politics. So, I don't think there's time to educate Kossacks (and others) about the benefits of the bill-- how the money will go to Wetlands restoration, etc. By the time we make inroads on the left, the predictable election-year divisions will undo the various coalitions that are now assembled in support of the bill.
It's not a great bill. If just the Senate version passes, that will provide hardly enough revenue to address LA's urgent coastal restoration needs.
I like your argument about "oil not being a bad word in progressive Norway", too.
Great post and I agree with your senitments and analysis 100 percent. This is the problem Louisiana folks no matter their politcs share. Louisiana will be used for political gain and as a issue from bith sides of the aisle. That is partly because of our weak number wise Congressional delegation.
Republican Tancredo did it to get his 15 minutes of fame and so have people on the left. It comes down to this simple fact. There is in the end so much money to go around. Dem and Repubs want money to go to their own districts. Louisiana or the long term concerns of the nation as to problems in Louisiana is the least of their concern. We will have to come together and make sure we fight in our perspective parties to inform people.
