Adrastos has a fine post about how Dollar Bill Jefferson might be able to win the runoff. I was pessimistic about his chances, but then I heard about Derrick Shepherd endorsing Jefferson and it made my stomach churn in angst. Shepherd hasn't *officially* endorsed Jefferson, but I read where he said that he would support the candidate who shares his commitment to "veterans and senior citizens..." and that means he's endorsing Jefferson. What an asshole. I mean, really. Shepherd wants Jefferson to win so he can run again when Jefferson is indicted and has to resign. He doesn't have the district's interests at heart, merely his own ambitions.
I agree with Bayou St. John David's analysis in the comment thread at Adrastos. Even with Shepherd's endorsement it is very hard to see who will be motivated to vote either FOR Dollar Bill or AGAINST Kim Carter. Will Shep be able to turn out his "Marrero machine" on Jefferson's behalf? I don't think so. And yet, Carter's support is very thin and she has won most of the newspaper endorsements, including the N.O. Tribune's, by default.
I don't think "race" will be a big factor, and I don't see how Dollar Bill will be able to get the turnout he needs in Jeff Parish to win. But Shep's endorsement and assistance will make this election much closer than it should be, and carries a helluva lot more weight than Mayor Nagin's endorsement. Thank goodness Joe Lavigne isn't a self-centered opportunist like Shepherd (and Rob Couhig). He won't campaign for Jefferson in order to punish Carter and the Democratic party at the region's expense. Also, Lavigne doesn't have the same loyal following as Couhig did in the mayoral contest, and white East Bank conservatives do not hate Karen Carter like they do Mitch Landrieu, which are some additional reasons why Bill Jefferson won't be able to "play the edges against the middle" like Nagin did. But Jefferson does have one edge (sorta) and Carter only has a weak claim on the middle. But I'm certain that "Lavigne Conservatives" will vote in droves for Carter. And enough "Harry Lee Best Bankers" will hold their noses for Carter and/or stay home, so that they won't be the spoiler for Carter like Couhig Conservatives were the spoiler for Mitch Landrieu.
So, previously, I thought Karen Carter would win by about 55-45%. Now I think she'll only win in a squeaker. Uggh.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Karen Carter versus Dollar Bill
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4 Comments:
Race is always a major factor, Erster. It's the American way...
No, we've overcome all that nastiness, A. Distant past, never to surface again.
I'm getting less confident in Carter's ability to win by the hour.
One bit of good news is Carter carried most of the precincts in the "sliver by the river".
I just hope the R's dont turn out for Carter in hopes of embarrassing the Democratic Party and embarrassing the city (which would hurt the recovery effort and keep dispalced Democrats from coming back).
Carter is a crappy candidate. I can't blame the West Bank/Jefferson crowd for sitting this one out. I'll take another whack at that later on today.