With the immigration *compromise* in the Senate, President Bush and the Senators have detonated the slow-motion trigger on a Republican debacle in 2008.
He's not wrong. You can review Frum's list of reasons "why" here, but I'll excerpt the two I found most compelling:
* The deal scrambles the 2008 race, in ways deeply unhelpful to the party. The deal has wounded all three of the GOP front-runners: McCain because he is deeply implicated in it; Giuliani because he has tacitly endorsed it; Romney because it has added one more flip-flop to his already too lengthy list of reversals. The deal helps the two undeclared Republicans, Gingrich and Thompson - both of whom, alas, are much less electable on a national ticket than the three declared front-runners.
Giuliani tacitly supports the "amnesty bill"? Uh oh. How's Senator Vitty-cent gonna handle that one? Is he once again going to "agree to disagree" on a major issue with the Presidential candidate he endorsed?
* The White House/RNC defense of the deal only enrages Republican voters. When Tony Snow [argues]... that George W. Bush has been tougher on illegal immigration than any president ever... well, he invites jeers and derision. Of the 35 million foreign-born people in the United States, some 8 million have arrived since 2001. Of the 12 million estimated illegals in the United States, some 4 million have arrived since 2001.
The Washinton Times is unamused by the so-called "amnesty bill", and says that it will be expensive:
[The immigration legislation] which provides amnesty for nearly all of the 12 million (or maybe even 20 million) illegal aliens already here, would swell the size of the welfare state in a way we haven't seen since Lyndon Johnson imposed his Great Society on us four decades ago.
...
Mr. Rector of the Heritage Foundation says one major effect of the Senate amnesty bill will be to make approximately 9 million additional persons -- many of them low-skilled immigrants -- legal permanent residents of the United States who could lawfully benefit from a variety of social programs, including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Supplemental Security Income and public housing. Over the course of their lifetimes, these people will utilize $2.5 trillion more in government services than they will pay in taxes. American welfare and social services were designed for poor Americans; as a result of amnesty legislation, this legislation would expand the American welfare state to include a significant portion of the population of Mexico.
Even though I don't view illegal immigration as a top tier problem, I do think this proposal seems massively complex, and likely unworkable. Whether it qualifies as "amnesty" or not, the bill includes a huge amount of expense, red tape, and unenforcable rules. How can I expect employers and illegal immigrants to use some byzantine "points system" that I can't even understand?
The trap for the GOP is that only a bill with amnesty provisions can pass the Senate, and that's anathema to the rabid right. So hard right Republican presidential candidates will rally against the bill, and its (reasonable) supporters like McCain and Guiliani. For example, Mitt Romney is now aligning himself with the "deport 'em all" crowd and railing against the Senators who are trying to forge a compromise. Senator McCain didn't like being trapped in the middle. Today he struck back against Romney's opportunism:
"Maybe I should wait a couple weeks and see if it changes," Mr. McCain said of Mr. Romney's position on immigration this week. "Maybe he can get out his small varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his yard."
Great images there-- "small gun", "Guatemalans on the yard"... good stuff. This pleasures me so much because-- in so many ways, from Iraq to immigration-- the right wing has become like a snake eating its own tale.
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Title quote is drawn from Rancid's "Salvation" (lyrics here) which is not about immigration per se, but I thought it fit close enough. Kewl kidz know that prior to Rancid, Tim and Matt formed Operation Ivy, one of the coolest bands of all time.
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Labels: Elections and Campaigns, GOP
