Tuesday, January 08, 2008
More scattered bone readings at Southern Leftist, and We Could Be Famous.
Here's my favorite Cure song. It's titled "Primary".
Robert Smith on bass, another bass, and drums. (Can that be right?) Great lyrics, too:
The innocence of sleeping children
Dressed in white
And slowly dreaming
Stops all time
Slow my steps and start to blur
So many years have filled my heart
I never thought I'd say those words
The further we go
And older we grow
The more we know ...
The less we show ...
The very first time I saw your face
I thought of a song
And quickly changed the tune
The very first time I touched your skin
I thought of a story
And rushed to reach the end
you've got obama at close to 50% too.
reading about the record turnout, i think it could be a blowout for him.
Can't stop the "O" mentum.
yes, it's "obamarama" up in new hampshire. They're really "barack-ing" the vote. THIS Hussein, as in Barack Hussein Obama, has a weapon of mass destruction, and it is democracy... what else you got?
I predict Romney wins the GOP nomination. I don't know if he'll win tonight but he'll win Michigan and stitch together enough wins and 2nds with the odd 3rd to sew up the nomination. He's self-financing and that helps. A lot.
As for 'Bama - Roll Tide!
By 3:34 PM, at
"O" Mentum! Heh! That's a classic!
I am just stunned at the apparently massive voter turnout in NH. A tidal wave! Good for Obama. Good for the country.
he won't win michigan. that's another mccain shoe-in, in my view. he has better numbers there because of his father's name recognition in the state, but mccain won there 4 years ago and was polling better there before his recent resurgence.
I hope you right. I love to watch Hillary cry. What a pussy.
I also was picking Obama by 15, but before I could get my prediction in I came across this random UK blog post citing Frank Lutz that early exits show Obama http://fairdealphil.blogspot.com/2008/01/nh-exit-polls-say-obama-wins-but-not-by.htmlwill not win by double digits...
By 5:47 PM, at
Well hell. I saw NOBODY calling this for Hillary. This is going to go on for a long time.
Oopsie. This is why I didn't do any predicting NH voters are unpredictible.
Looks like this fairy tale ends for Bears fan Obama.
I was wrong about Paul beating Giuliani. I think my Romney Theory of Victory still holds, where McCain is good, Huckabee is terrible and vice-versa, and Romney wins by virtue of being Goldilocks.
As an Obama supporter I can't say I'm happy he lost but the silver lining is he got the same number of delegates as Clinton in NH (9 each) and will be portrayed as being knocked back on his heels. If he comes back it will eliminate the "Obama has never taken a punch" narrative. When the former President of the United States calls your run a "fairy tale" and not in a good way and lies about your Iraq War support (and his own) -- it's a hard shot.
What the playing field looks like:
1/15 - Michigan primary - no delegates due to DNC sanctions for moving date, no Obama on ballot
1/19 - Nevada caucus, Clinton had a big lead but it's a first time caucus and all the political people online say whoever wins the Culinary Workers Union wins the caucus because they are very active, Obama set to win the Unite Here union endorsement (or was)
1/26 - South Carolina, has proportionately more black voters than just about any state, a very different state than IA, NH - results will be interesting
1/29 - Florida primary, again no delegates available due to DNC sanction
2/5 - AL, AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, MA, NM, NY, OK, TN, UT, KS
I think the people won tonight. It's votes that decide elections, not pollsters and opinions. That's encouraging for the other 48 1/2 states who haven't voted.
By 3:29 AM, at
Actually Joe, I read that of the 5 NH Superdelegates, 3 are for Obama and 2 are for Clinton. So actually, Obama walked out of NH with one more delegate than Clinton, even though she "won" the primary.
ashley - I lean towards not counting those superdelegates because they are attached to people and people change their minds. If the difference between winning and losing is the superdelegates then whichever two candidates are left will get in a bidding war over them (cabinet jobs, legislative promises, etc.) which will decide the contest, not their non-binding public statement of support.
But you are definitely correct about the superdelegates going for Obama in NH. Overall, HRC has a big lead in superdelegates.
By 11:03 AM, at