Fwiw, as I write this, I haven't read or seen any news coverage about turnout or exit polls.
From anecdotal evidence after visiting several precinct locations today, I'm going to say that Obama takes 73 percent of the Orleans vote, and beats Hillary statewide 57 to 41. I predict that the Secretary of State will say that statewide turnout was even lower than 15 percent (although I'm skeptical about how turnout has been assessed, post-Katrina). Also, I think a lot of provisional ballots were collected that would (or will?) have gone to Obama. There was a large envelope stuffed with cast provisional ballots at the precinct table where I voted. Unfortunately, the Dem Party State Committee controls a number of delegates, and I'm not sure how the regional apportionments work, so it's possible that Obama might not gain many net delegates with his victory.
Timshel has a more conservative estimate. He says Obama by nine.
I also predict that Mark Moseley's grassroot (singular) campaign for Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee will miss the cut, but I expect many superior candidates to be elected.
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Update: After quickly scanning some
news reports about LA turnout and demographics, everything I have seen points to a much much closer contest than I predicted. (Original post was edited slightly after initial publication.)
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Update #2: Final results, 100 percent of LA precincts reporting:
Obama: 57%
Clinton: 36%
Orleans Parish: 75% Obama
Congratulations to all of tonight's
winners.Labels: Elections and Campaigns, Hillary, Obama, oyster
19 Comments:
Turnout is a big problem from my observations as well.
I've heard reports of many people being turned away for allegedly being not registered or registered independent.
Hopefully Mr. Obama can pull through with a victory tonight.
Louisiana officials need to address apathy and poor information flow to the public regarding registration rules and deadlines. They changed up so much for this primary and it's as if they told no one.
The Democratic Party Committees from City and State hopefully are being pumped with new blood that recognize the fundamental importance of enfranchising the voters here.
Turnout in Thibodaux was quite low, according to the poll workers. Every time I go to vote, there another damned different kind of voting machine.
The poll workers were pretty uninformed about the use of provisional ballots according to a friend of mine here in Orleans Parish that struggled with phone calls to B.R. and annoyed poll volunteers to ensure her vote was recorded.
Well I voted for the kicker. When we were kids, my brother and I spent many a long afternoon playing football in the street. We would take turns running routes for each other often pretending to be prominent professional or college players.
We would even try to imitate as closely as possible the particular gait or throwing motion of some of these players. (I used to think I had Randall Cunningham's long-armed over-head delivery pegged while my brother was good at mincing big-buttedly ala Bobby Hebert.)
But my brother was always fascinated by the kicking game. Often he would demand (despite my bored protestations) that I hold for him while he kicked a few balls through an imaginary goal post.
Moseley was (of course) a favorite of his because of his unique (by our time anyway) straight-ahead kicking style.
So you see I was proud to vote for Mark Moseley today... maybe even sentimental about it.
Can I meet your bro sometime? He seems like a very likable chap.
I do appreciate the support, but didn't have the time or urge to put much effort into a "campaign".
I was half-planning to go wave a homemade "Moseley" sign on St. Chuck, but probably correctly figured that might cost me more votes than I might get randomly.
I was stunned, however, not to see any Obamites signwaving at the intersections... where's the grassroots passion, dammit!?
Actually, I did see a load of Obamites at Audubon Park today with many, many Obamoid signs.
And curse these closed primaries! They discriminate against moi, a darling charming registered independent. Schmucks.
They were holding signs at a park?
Oh lord.
In the park... sitting in the grass (roots)
Sorry.
Sitting on their ass roots, maybe?
Umm, I didn't get a good look at the signs, but I saw enough to know that Obama's mane was on 'em. "Obama sez: Keep off the grass"? "Don't inhale"?
Whoops, that's "name". There are a lot of horses that go through that park, too. My bad...
i canvassed for obama today. there was a sign team in place on claiborne, no?
whatever, it worked. obama swept.
oyster, i would have been happy to have been your campaign manager...
all you had to do was ask...
i had a stack of pamphlets linking your opponents to osama bin laden
I didn't see a single person waving a sign for any candidate today on the way to my polling place on the Lakefront. Usually for regular elections they're thick at the Elysian Fields/Leon C. Simon intersection, but I guess no one's spending "sign holding" money for a primary...
Y'all'r so funny. Six pack of Abita says Oystermon hits prediction.
http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=020908
"I've heard reports of many people being turned away for allegedly being not registered or registered independent. "
In the precinct where I worked, we did have to turn away 5 people who were registered as having no party affiliation, but swore they were registered Democrats. One apparently had his status changed when he changed his address on his driver's license. Another (about 20-years-old) had changed his affiliation at a school drive from Republican to Democrat...or so he thought. (The Registrar's office was not called on the other three.)
This was only 5 out of 253, so it's hard to label it a conspiracy, but considering the fact that there was about an average of five people per page in the register (of around 1200 registered voters) that were registered as "No Party", it's definitely a bit fishy.
Hey, thanks for the firsthand perspective, Saintlywife!
And thanks for the civic service-- during the third trimester, no less!
Happy to give it!
But you must have me confused with another. You know a pregnant woman who would work those hours/conditions....and in the third trimester?!?!?!
(Not that the conditions are bad.
This is my third year as a commissioner, and I really enjoy it. But we're talking about 5:30AM-8:30PM, or longer, either standing or sitting in cafeteria-type chairs. My non-pregnant back is sore after 10 hours.)
More good news for ya: Clinton's campaign manager just quit.
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4269776
Sorry for the mistaken identity, saintlywife-- I thought you were dillyberto's better half.
