You'll never understand a politician by analyzing his or her policies and proposals "issue by issue". Similarly, you'll never understand a political campaign by tracking movement in "the polls". Both methods, at best, are hopelessly backwards-looking.
In my opinion, political campaign dynamics are the most important prime mover during election season (and isn't it always "election season", these days?). The strategic interplay between campaign positioning (narrative, issues framing, attacks), media bias, money and voter mood... that's where the action is. That's what moves the polls, that's what dictates "policy" talk". (I hate to break it to the non-politicos, but so-called "policy talk" during campaigns is mostly the vocabulary of political maneuvering.) So, I base my analyses and prognostications upon political campaign dynamics, first and foremost. I know that seems vague, and perhaps I'll discuss it in more depth at a later date, but I thought that was important to say at the beginning of this post.
So, that background might explain a bit why I continue to view the pay raise issue
in itself... as such a silly, paltry, distracting thing. Yet, the media and talk radio in particular continue to discuss it like it's an isolated issue, like it's just some remote volcano that happened to erupt unexpectedly.
Wow, why is the legislature raising their pay? They must be greedy.Wow, why won't Governor Jindal veto this bill? He must be weak.And back and forth, and back and forth... Greedy leges, Weak Guv, Outraged Voters/Punditry.
This simple formulation seems good, until you remove one of the "legs" from the stool. If the pay raise bill had not passed through the legislature-- would everything be ok? Or if Jindal vetoed it, would he still be regarded as a "strong reformer" rather than a "weak hypocrite"? Or if the Voters and Punditry hadn't all gotten mad in unison over this, would everything be fine?
For my convenience, I'll reprint a
comment I made at WCBF. It's not a groundbreaking insight-- YRHT readers have repeatedly made the same point-- but I think it continues to be relevant during
"Jindal's 20 day Baton Death March":When you're analyzing the politics of this, I think it's useful to consider the strong likelihood that this pay raise deal was part of a deal involving other legislation that is near and dear to the Jindal administration. He won't veto it because it is part of a quid pro quo arrangement with other key legislators who will support (or already supported) his other b.s. plans.
Of course he told them he needed the flexibility to publicly "disapprove" if things got heated, but he told them he wouldn't veto a payraise. So he can't go back on it now and veto it, without making some powerful, lifelong legislative enemies. He's only 6 months into his term, so he's totally f-cked himself on this. When the heat became intolerable, he tried to publicly put the blame back on the Legislature, and, as you noted, his former allies like Jim Tucker felt "antagonized". It was the worst possible play, but Jindal and Teepell had no good options.
Now, I don't know all the different things that might've been promised or subtly hinted at during these backroom negotiations, but now everything that happens subsequent to the payraise kerfuffle should be regarded with suspicion, as a potential part of the deal.
In short, what's outrageous is
the deal behind the pay raise "issue". That's what's politically illuminating. That's always been the interesting question. Charged rhetoric about an outrageous
"war against the citizens" actually
obscures the real issue. Instead of asking why Jindal was "weak" on the pay raise issue, the media should've been asking:
Why is Jindal willing to take the political heat on this (rather small) issue?
Why is he willing to look weak at such an important time in his political career? Why is he willing to get mocked and ridiculed locally, while he
"vogues for veep", nationally*?
Now, finally, we're getting more specifics about Jindal's pay raise deal with the Legislature. And these details confirm exactly what
Ryan at the Daily Kingfish suspected way back on June 12th:
Governor Jindal traded pay raises for school vouchers! Jindal was in on the pay raise
from the very beginning! He bought off key legislators from day one!
So now that we've established that Jindal's pay raise deal with the Legislature was for vouchers, we should ask the natural follow up question:
Why are vouchers so darn important to Jindal? Why is he willing to cut backroom deals, break promises,
enrage his former supporters, and hurt his veep chances... over
school vouchers?
Heh. Well.
Perhaps I should've been more explicit about connecting certain select posts I've written over the past year concerning
Bobby Jindal,
Woody Jenkins,
Timmy Teepell,
Melissa Sellers,
Ruth Ulrich/All Children Matter, and
the CNP. So let me take this opportunity now to connect the isolated dots in a clearer, more relevant manner:
Public education is where the rubber hits the road for these people. The radical right/lunatic /CNP/Christian Reconstructionist fringe that bankrolls conservative Republicans like Jindal quite literally believe that public education is where "it all went wrong" in this country. They believe impressionable young children are indoctrinated by secularist, anti-Christian government schools... and they're basically "gone pecans" after that. They believe that public education shatters family values and creates the government dependency which leads to all the social ills that have infected our precious American Christian culture.
And that's why Jindal is willing to take so much heat on this pay raise bullshit. It's tied to the voucher deal, which the Christian Reconstruction Reactionaries view as an essential step towards their long-range goal of removing America's public education system.
The reactionaries in the CNP have no interest in quality public schools. Similarly, it's not in their interest to have kids growing up, learning "Darwinism". That's precisely the problem, in their view. They want advocates in power who are willing to
embarrass themselves on national TV , and say "New Louisiana" and "the 'best science' includes Intelligent Design" in the same breath. And because dismantling secular public education (through vouchers and Intelligent Design) is part of their core long-term strategy, these CNP reactionaries will pressure Jindal to do whatever it takes on these issues, because they view vouchers and ID as part of the
camel's nose that will one day upset the whole tent.
So if the media naively thinks that Jindal
should simply veto creationist trojan horse legislation, they're two steps behind the game. Why won't Jindal EVER veto creationist legislation?-- that's the interesting question. And the answer is: because, like vouchers, it's more important to the "powers that be" than nearly anything else.
So, it would be extremely helpful if the media were forced to frame these issues in a more accurate way. Despite Jindal having to expend immense political capital on these things-- he's actually still getting off easy. And if the people in this state who value quality public schools and non-bullshit science could better understand what's really going on, they could play political hardball in a much more effective way. Ask why Jindal felt pressed to make a pay raise deal for vouchers in the first place. Couldn't he argue for school vouchers on its own merits. Why did he feel the need to pay the legislature off? Is this the part of his agenda he believes the legislature will derail, if he vetoes the pay raise?
Instead of news stories about a hopeless recall effort, orchestrated by people who think Bobby Jindal is too "weak" to stand up to the "greedy" legislature, how about forcing Jindal to give an example of a scientific theory or fact about evolution that is being withheld from our precious schoolchildren due to "political correctness". Could he give us an example of some of the "best science" which is currently being withheld from Louisiana schoolchildren? Make the biology major answer that one. And when he talks about how complicated the human eye is, or the second law of thermodynamics--
nail him on it! Make him look stupid.
And if that doesn't work, go for the political jugular: Governor Jindal, does this mean Louisiana science teachers can incorporate
John McCain's first-hand account of pleistocene-era hominids into their lesson plans on evolution?
Just askin'.
---
Update: Funny as it is, I felt a little bit bad about that last dig on McCain.
Not anymore. "Anyone will tell you that they’re starting to see a dramatic improvement in the quality of education in the city of New Orleans." (H/T
blogenfreude).
---
Update #2: Also, this
Central LA Politics post about Governor Jindal's intent to destroy the Ethics Board is well worth your time.
---
* Actually Jindal knows he won't be veep, and just wants the national media "buzz" and the keynote address at the GOP convention.Labels: Cons, Elections and Campaigns, Jindal, Schools, Weeligion
17 Comments:
Okay. So Timmy is in the CNP and Bobby did a lecture tour with Dab Barton. And obviously the pay raise is tied to passing Jindal's pet legislation; several leges said as much after the pay raise was wrapped up.
What I don't get in your analysis is why Jindal would trade the goodwill of his constituents and the press to placate some unnamed faction of the CNP/Reconstructionists. He's facing recalls, national scorn, and major loss of influence, in exchange for ... what?
He didn't "trade" the goodwill of his constituents, but he will endure their scorn (now that everything blew up) rather than endanger the vouchers dealio.
Another way of asking that question would be: why will you NEVER EVER see Jindal fire Timmy Teepell?
or another way to get at it might be to turn it around: what, if any, core CNP agenda item will Jindal compromise on? (none)
If you have national ambitions as a conservative, you sure as hell better pass muster with the CNP, which is dominated by these Christian dominionist/reconstructionist far right loonies and is funded by billionaires like DeVos. When you go to the mat for them-- on vouchers and creationism and other assorted wackaloonery-- they remember it. "They" will give you their blessing, and will dedicate resources and infrastructure for a national campaign... when the time comes.
"Make him look stupid."
Good in theory, Oyster, and I agree with you. That would be nice. The problem is that a majority of Louisianans probably agree with his creationist views. Probably a large majority.
But the pay raise, ah, that gets people pissed off.
If his credibility is killed over a raise or over his wierd 'science', does it really matter?
Won't it achieve the same end result?
"Won't it achieve the same end result?"
Yeah, it might. You're probably right about the lack of effectiveness my little proposal might have. "Nailing" Jindal on creationism would have small short term political results, in Louisiana. But it would help disrupt the "whiz kid/brain drain fighter" narrative that the media swallowed hook line and sinker last election.
I harbor the illusion that perhaps if that political "soft spot" were poked enough, we'd get a very interesting political reaction.
I have seen elsewhere that the governor started the whole cycle of events by giving large raises to members of his own staff.
Also, I still feel like he should never have started off his own tenure as governor with the ethics special session. What was done was pretty hollow and also finagled so that it impacted legislators and various officials but not the governor himself or those close to him, thus he started off making enemies.
"I have seen elsewhere that the governor started the whole cycle of events by giving large raises to members of his own staff."
At first, that's what I thought it was, too. And I'm sure it became a factor during the negotiations, but the vouchers makes a lot more sense.
Considering all the other stuff I've been looking into regarding the state of public education in this city, this whole thing makes me sicker than sick. This has been happening all over the country, and now it finally comes here, in large part because of 8-29 and the garage doors it opened politically for these people.
I can only hope to MY God that this will scientifically blow up in their faces in the very near future, if not a more distant one.
Your comment makes little sense. Jindal won about 60% of the vote in the primary. He doesn't need to cling or kow-tow to the CNP base.
Personally, I think Jindal is a quasi-conservative bureaucrat who just doesn't know how be a politician.
In the 30 years I've lived here, most of the governors have been pleasant and ineffectual.
So far Jindal is continuing the tradition.
"He doesn't need to cling or kow-tow to the CNP base."
Jindal has national ambitions. He'll want to please the CNP* in order to have their blessing when he runs for President in 4 or 8 years. (Note: Jindal got 54% in the primaries against 3 second tier candidates. I predicted he would get 57%. He wouldn't receive that much if another election was held today.)
---
* I realize it's not a monolithic organization.
A couple of comments...
Greg: "What I don't get in your analysis is why Jindal would trade the goodwill of his constituents and the press to placate some unnamed faction of the CNP/Reconstructionists"
It is because Jindal wants to be President. The extremist right winged conservative base will not reject him for allowing a pay raise. They will, however, embrace him if he pushes their agenda. If Jindal is shown to support those policies (eliminating public schools, pushing for vouchers/creationism) then he will get the Huckabee vote automatically and will only have to work to pick up the rest. At the end of the day, even with the pay raise issue, Jindal is not likely to lose Louisiana to a Democrat.
Oyster: "In short, what's outrageous is the deal behind the pay raise "issue". That's what's politically illuminating. That's always been the interesting question. Charged rhetoric about an outrageous "war against the citizens" actually obscures the real issue."
As people who enjoy discussing politics and want more than a 30 second sound bite I would agree that to us, it is politically illuminating to see the deal behind the pay raise issue. However, as I think you and I both know, most people don't want to hear more than a 30 second soundbite.
"Instead of asking why Jindal was "weak" on the pay raise issue, the media should've been asking:
Why is Jindal willing to take the political heat on this (rather small) issue? Why is he willing to look weak at such an important time in his political career? Why is he willing to get mocked and ridiculed locally, while he "vogues for veep", nationally*?"
A) Why do you expect the media to actually do their job properly? They never did with Jindal previously and as rookies to the whole "criticizing Jindal" thing, they are just getting their feet wet.
B) This again assumes that the people would care about the inner workings of why things happen. Many just care that the thing happened.
Those of us who knew what kind of Congressman/Governor Bobby Jindal would be should not care why the people are getting angry at Jindal. Does it matter if someone gets angry at Jindal because he refuses to veto the pay raise or if they get angry because of the reasons behind the pay raise? At the end of the day, they are still mad at Jindal and are still seeing Jindal to be the liar and hypocrite we all knew him to be. And even worse, is that many of the people who are against Jindal's refusal to veto the pay raise would change their minds and accept if if they learned that the pay raise was the vehicle to get vouchers and ID in schools.
Your post is spot on, inciteful, and for all people who are either interested in the inner workings of politics or are not angered by Jindal's refusal to veto... it is a must read. However, for many Jindal supporters who may stumble across your blog, you lost them at "political campaign dynamics".
"So if the media naively thinks that Jindal should simply veto creationist trojan horse legislation, they're two steps behind the game. Why won't Jindal EVER veto creationist legislation?-- that's the interesting question. And the answer is: because, like vouchers, it's more important to the "powers that be" than nearly anything else."
It is actually much more simple than that. Jindal supports creationism/ID in schools. Why would anybody veto something that he (and many of his supporters) supports?
OK, Oyster he finally came around and vetoed it! Haha it must have been GNOR's press releases. Now did he show courage or did he succumb to public pressure? Eager to hear your take.
--Stormy Weathers
MY guess (although no one asked) is that the vouchers (& maybe the ID) was payment for services already rendered by conservative groups, and not a down payment on future "help."
It was public pressure. Not that he actually felt that the recall would have been successful... but he couldn't afford to have that hanging over his head (if he wanted to be VEEP or keynote speaker, or whatever.... you wont get those things with a recall effort hanging over your head).
Well, stormy, it was public pressure, but I'm sure promises were made to key legislators. Jindal found a way to rework the original vouchers-for-pay raises deal.
I was impressed by the way Jindal admitted his mistake so forthrightly.
But this illustrates my point about why the backstory is so important. Jindal vetoed the payraise-- does that make everything fine? Is there nothing to be outraged by, now? Wasn't the more important point in this kerfuffle that Jindal traded vouchers for payraises in the first place?
Right. And tomorrow every news outlet will report this story about Jindal's "courageous veto" with zero of the above context.
Vouchers are reasonable--for Orleans Parish only. That system is a massive charlie foxtrot.
In most places, where the public schools are adequate, sending your kids there is a CHOICE that you should pay for yourself.
nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
nike air
puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
Lucyliu IS Lucyliu
nike shoe cart
puma future
levis jeans
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes
cheap puma
nike rift
jeans shop
diesel jeans
