Friday, November 04, 2011

LSU vs. Alabama 

 Business Insider:
Tomorrow's monster game between LSU and Alabama could produce more betting action than any college football game ever, Wynn sportsbook head John Avello told ESPN's Chad Millman.

Well, you'd expect big action on a game like this, which is essentially a pick'em for the bookmakers.

The line right now is either Alabama -4.5 or -5.

Sorry, must've misread that. Let's try again.

The line right now is either Alabama -4.5 or -5.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!? This LSU team is a 5 point dog? I don't care who or where they're playing. Unless they're facing a pro team, that line is totally insane. (Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the line isn't a prediction, it's an attempt to even the books with a spread that looks compelling for bettors on both sides... still... five? FIVE?!?)

75% of bets are on LSU...

I'd imagine so.

... so we'll see if the line moves as even more everyday bettors place wagers tomorrow morning.

So 75% of the initial (presumably professional and "smart") money is already on LSU, and I can't think of any evidence that would dissuade the "everyday bettors" from piling on further.

It's going to be huge for Vegas.

It's likely going to be a huge bloodbath for Vegas, and a significant transfer of wealth to Louisianans. I don't care what happens on Saturday-- in a situation like this, I'd bet LSU +5 every time. That doesn't mean that if LSU and Bama played 100 times,  Alabama wouldn't win a few by more than five, but I'm positive the substantial majority of contests would be either LSU victories or Alabama winning by 4 or less.

Man, what a weird line. In a big game like this, you figure Vegas is baiting the stupid money with that fat number, wanting them to pile on LSU (in effect a sucker play where the oddsmakers are happy to have uneven books). But... I really don't think so this time. And if they got the line "wrong," it would've already quickly jumped down from 5 to 3.5 or so. Now they're stuck with a bad line on their biggest college game ever. What can they do? Even if they drop it to 4 or 3.5, I don't see the casual bettor unloading on Bama. And if Vegas takes the line to 3 or under, which would probably lure some casual money on the home team, they run the very real risk of getting "middled." (Say the Tide wins by 4, bookies have to pay all the bets on LSU +5, and all the late money on Bama -3.)

Though I'm crazy about LSU wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr, I'm not a Tigers fan. So consider the following prediction from this neutral observer:

LSU 30 - Alabama 21.

Monday, October 31, 2011

Katrina Zombies want to eat your brain!